Our Methodology
We combine scientific rigor with business-focused outcomes. Our process ensures that every insight is reproducible, defensible, and actionable.
How the analysis is done.
Four steps. No black boxes. Findings that hold up in a board presentation and in a peer review.
Data Extraction
We pull harmonised trade flow data from ITC TradeMap — the UN-maintained repository covering bilateral trade statistics for 220 countries and 5,300 product categories at the HS 6-digit level.
Econometric Modelling
We apply panel regression and causal inference methods to isolate signal from noise. Every relationship is tested for statistical significance. Gravity model variants are used for market sizing.
Sensitivity Testing
All outputs include confidence intervals and scenario ranges. We run Monte Carlo simulations on tariff scenarios and stress-test supply chain models against historical disruption data.
Reproducible Findings
No consulting theater. Every analysis is documented with methodology notes and reproducible code. You own the output. We don't obscure the process to create dependency.
"We pull harmonised trade data from ITC TradeMap, apply econometric modelling to isolate causal relationships, and translate statistical output into operational recommendations. Every analysis includes confidence intervals and sensitivity testing. No consulting theater — just reproducible findings."
Rigorous Data Sourcing
By leveraging ITC TradeMap's direct access to UN Comtrade statistics, we eliminate the noise of secondary data providers. We work with raw, mirror-checked trade flows to ensure 98%+ data accuracy.
Causal Econometrics
We don't just show correlations. Using panel data regression and difference-in-differences (DiD) models, we isolate the true impact of tariff changes or regulatory shifts on trade volumes.